It’s over. For better or worse, John McCain will be the Repulican nominee in 2008. Unfortunately, the only one in the country who seems unable to recognize that fact is Governor Huckabee.Everyone  instinctively knows that Huckabee cannot overtake McCain’s commanding delegate lead, and rather than following the gracious example set by Mayor Giuliani and Governor Romney, Huckabee seems intent upon wounding the presumptive GOP nominee and preventing him from using this critical time to unite the Party, fundraise, and work on creating the kind of nationwide grassroots organization that will be needed for the fall.

Many pundits once speculated that Huckabee was staying in the race long enough to prevent Governor Romney from winning, and hopefully earning a veep spot with a grateful John McCain.  Increasingly however, it appears that Huckabee’s campaign is really all about Huckabee. Far from waging some kind of heroic fight for the conservative heart of the GOP, it appears as though Huckabee is merely running a campaign of personal ambition, for continuing to embarrass John McCain is not the most intuitive way to win over the presumptive nominee or help the conservative cause.  As the syndicated columnist Charles Krauthammer has noted, Huckabee seems intent on staying in the race long enough to overtake Governor Romney’s delegate count in order to earn himself 2012 bragging rights as the guy that came in second. Moreover, the otherwise unemployed Huckabee seems to be genuinely enjoying his time in the spotlight – making speeches to adoring crowds and touring from state to state like a country music star.

There is no question that Huckabee has run a good campaign, and there’s little doubt that he has skill as a politician and as a speaker, but enough is enough. Huckabee has proven his worth, demonstrated that he is now a national name in GOP circles, and must be considered amongst other likley candidates in the 2012 race – he’s probably even earned a right to address the Republican National Convention in September.  Yet irrespective of his losses today, Huckabee vows to fight on.

With each passing day, Huckabee’s campaign smacks more of pride and vanity than principle. With each passing week, Huckabee’s own stature is diminished by his attempts to remain in the spotlight. Governor Huckabee may keep playing his guitar, traveling from state to state, and delivering fiery speeches, but the longer he goes on, the smaller he seems. Alas, the candidate that seemed larger than life in Iowa is now the incredible shrinking Huckabee.

You ran a great campaign Governor, but now it’s time to recognize the inevitable, save your dignity, and bow out gracefully before it’s too late.

 Huckabee?  Oh please. Iowa has demonstrated once again why its choices for president are persistently incorrect.  Recent winners of the Iowa caucuses include John Kerry, Al Gore, Tom Harkin, Dick Gephardt, Walter Mondale, and Bob Dole.  None of whom went on to be President.  While Iowa has proven to be a better indicator for Republicans, it is rare that there is not a heavy GOP favorite or heir apparent in the race.

The Huckabee victory proves only what we already knew about GOP politics in Iowa. An exceedingly small group of people participate, those who do tend to be activists, most are more concerned with social and religious issues, notably unconcerned with foreign affairs, and largely dismissive of general election viability. Iowans vote for the guy they like.

Governor Huckabee deserves credit for his victory, especially in light of his near nonexistent campaign infrastructure and fundraising apparatus.  We congratulate him.

The truth of the matter however, is that Governor Huckabee is a primary phenomenon, and a sure general election loser.  Moreover, rather than building momentum, Huckabee’s victory is likely to startle more conventional, victory-minded voters into the waiting arms of the only three viable national candidates, Mitt Romney, Rudy Giuliani and John McCain.  Of the three, Mitt Romney carries the least amount of baggage for conservatives, so once again, in our opinion, Romney remains the man to beat.

Moreover, now that the campaign has left Iowa, specific issues will begin to matter more than religious affiliation, and immigration, taxation, healthcare, education, and foreign affairs will begin to come into focus. Romney is well placed to compete on all these issues, save foreign affairs, and while he isn’t experienced in diplomacy, Romney needs only to advance a clear and credible foreign policy and do so with his characteristic eloquence.

McCain will continue to be dogged by his record on campaign finance, his vote to repeal the Bush tax cuts, his eager cooperation with Democrats such as Ted Kennedy, and worst of all, his record on immigration. 

Romney’s team needs to kick it into high gear in New Hampshire. Pound the pavement and focus on the issues on voters’ minds – most notably the economy. Huckabee’s victory is hardly a fatal blow to Romney.  Strategically Romney needs to let Huckabee hang himself, short circuit McCain, who isn’t likely to win another state anyway, and begin to leverage his economic/entrepreneurial credentials.

It was a sweet win for Huckabee, a welcome gift for McCain, a surprise for Thompson, and a disappointment for Romney, but of those candidates only Romney has a real chance of making it through the nomination process and running a credible and competitive national campaign.

Realistically, we look for a tough fight in New Hampshire between McCain and Romney, but we expect the Massachusetts governor to enter the winner’s circle on Tuesday.

Rudy Giuliani:The Michigan debate may have been Giuliani’s best. The affable mayor seemed relaxed, optimistic, and in command of the issues. His attacks, waged largely against Hillary Clinton, did much to elevate him above the other candidates and helped to feed the notion that Giuliani is both the inevitable nominee and the best match-up against Hillary Clinton in a general election. Giuliani was able to avoid many of the social issues that have plagued him in earlier debates due to largely policy-focused questions, and his retorts were generally articulate and on-point. When coupled with some humorous if slightly contrived lines, Giuliani’s performance was exactly what he needed to help build on his frontrunner status. 

  Mitt Romney: Romney continues to shine in the debate forum. His command of the issues is solid, his style is confident, and there is little doubt that he is competent. Unfortunately Romney’s handlers have gotten to him; forcing the normally cheerful and easy Romney to take on Giuliani over a trumped-up difference in policy. Moreover, Romney’s endorsement of the unconstitutional federal line-item-veto does nothing to bolster his constitutional credentials (nor does his leave it the attorneys position on war powers) or his already suspect conservative credentials as a strict constructionist. Romney is at his best when he leverages his business acumen against the failed big-government policies of those on the stage as well as likely Democratic opponent Hillary Clinton. Romney should take a page from Ross Perot and treat his campaign as a hostile takeover of a badly managed government, while using his easy, clear, style to build confidence and optimism. Romney should campaign on his strengths rather than on Giuliani’s unapparent weaknesses, and should avoid the kind of forced lines that bolster his critics claims of phoniness.

Fred Thompson: Given the high hopes among rank and file conservatives, Thompson was almost sure to disappoint, but the veteran actor proved even less of a star than expected. From a stumbling start that was far to reminiscent of George W. Bush’s grating inarticulateness, to platitudinous answers to policy questions in which his eyes frequently diverted to his notes, Thompson did little to rebut his solidifying reputation as a candidate running on image rather than on ideas. Moreover, on the debate stage, compared to optimists like Romney, Huckabee, and even Giuliani, Thompson seemed dower and distant. Thompson’s forte is clearly not a staged debate, but rather the folksy one-on-one encounters with everyday citizens. Thompson has yet to prove that he has the “fire in the belly” to be president, or the command of the issues to defeat the intelligent, if overtly leftist, Hillary Clinton.

John McCain: McCain’s Michigan performance may have been his worst. The once aggressive McCain seemed tired, downtrodden, and at times gave rambling answers to questions that he is known to have a better command of. Though McCain’s strong position on the war continues to lend credence to his campaign, and there is no question that McCain would be a strong commander-in-chief, the candidate himself seems to have been deeply affected by the precipitous (illegal immigration-driven) decline of his campaign. Moreover, McCain seemed plagued by technical difficulties that left him unable to hear the questions, resulting in a series of awkward pauses that undoubtedly if subconsciously highlighted his age. McCain’s performance was competent, and honest, if uninspiring.

Mike Huckabee: Huckabee continues to surprise and excel in the debate forum. His clearly articulated, folksy and cheerful demeanor makes him among the most engaging on the stage and continues to generate interest in his candidacy. Though some may deride Huckabee’s slightly “hickish” last name (certainly no worse than Millard Fillmore), there can be no doubting that Huckabee continues to gain popularity, and his common sense approach to governance seems refreshing and relatively genuine. Unfortunately, Huckabee continues not to receive the type of serious policy questions from moderators that he increasingly deserves. 

As for the other candidates, who have yet to emerge from solid second-tierdom, the results were mixed. Duncan Hunter’s tough, assured style continues to resonate confidence and decisiveness. Unfortunately his unrelenting focus on the issues of Chinese trade policy and a strong military begin to paint a portrait of the Congressman as an overly one-dimensional candidate. Indeed, it appears as if Hunter is campaigning full time for secretary of defense, rather than president of the United States. Sam Brownback continues to sound rational and clear, and gives the impression of a competent and dutiful public servant… perhaps suitable as a future head of the Department of the Interior. Ron Paul’s slightly hysterical personal style continues to erode any gains that his principled constitutional positions might otherwise engender, and Tom Tancredo, though right on illegal immigration, simply is out of his league as a presidential contender. Border Czar Tancredo has a nice ring to it however.

If Thompson and McCain were the debate’s big losers, Romney and Giuliani came out far ahead of the pack… and due to his poise, clarity, and skill the winner was clearly Giuliani.