Making predictions is a dangerous undertaking, for obvious reasons. Increasingly however, the die of the near-term political future seems to have been cast. So it is with an acknowledgment to the fact that politics is a rapidly changing and highly unpredictable animal, that Gopublius shares with you these initial 2008 predictions for the Democratic ticket.
A few weeks ago, it was almost inconceivable the Senator Hillary Rodham Clinton would fail to capture the Democratic nomination. True, the anti-war base is angry with her, she has high negatives, she lack’s her husband’s charisma, and her campaign has taken its share of recent missteps, but nevertheless, she’s the undisputed titan in the Democratic race. With near universal name recognition, a moderate Senate record on defense, tons of money, and Bill Clinton at her side, only the type of terrible miscalculation that is largely foreign to the incredibly calculating Clintons, could bring her down.
Barak Obama presents some real threat to Clinton, and his new campaign teammate Oprah Winfrey has helped to bolster his appeal, but Obama still faces the uphill battle that all first-time, non-establishment candidates face. Moreover, the failure of the Pelosi/Reid led Democratic Congress to “stop the war,” has inflamed the liberal base and galvanized support for Obama as the true anti-war candidate. Still, Democrats are likely to be mindful of electability, and nominating an inexperienced, anti-war, black male president with Muslim roots during the “War on Terror” may be regarded as too much for the general electorate to swallow. Anything could happen, but at this stage it still seems more likely than not that Hillary Clinton will be the choice of Democrats in 2008.
Assuming that Hillary Clinton is the Democrat nominee, here are two interesting and apparent choices for a Clinton vice presidential running mate:
Clinton/Richardson ‘08 – With little national support for his presidential bid, it seems as though the New Mexico governor is actively running for vice president. Despite a poor national showing, Richardson has several factors on his side that make him an attractive and obvious choice for Clinton.
First and foremost, Bill Richardson has extensive leadership experience. In addition to his current governorship, Richardson has served in the Congress, as the U.S. Secretary of Energy, the U.S. Ambassador to the U.N., and served as a negotiator for the U.S. in several key global hotspots. Richardson would bring substantial experience, including executive, and foreign policy experience, to the ticket.
Moreover, Richardson also brings with him other key factors that could help bolster the ticket - geography, race and a great American story. Richardson’s mother, a native of Mexico, borded a northbound train while pregnant with Richardson in order to ensure his American birth, yet his father’s lineage includes passengers aboard the Mayflower. Richardson is both a Hispanic immigrant, and a relative of some of America’s earliest founders, a longstanding Boston family – from whom he garnered the “waspy” name William Blaine Richardson III. Richardson it seems has a little in his background to appeal to everyone.
Nonetheless, Richardson identifies closely with the key and growing Hispanic community – a demographic sure to be eager to support one of their own, especially in light of the GOP’s rancorous immigration debate.
Moreover, Richardson is a westerner. That northbound train conveniently left Richardson’s mother in Pasadena, California, where he was born. Though he was raised in Mexico City until he was 13, Richardson later moved to Boston, and settled in Santa Fe in 1978. Richardson is therefore well placed to appeal to western voters tired of eastern establishment candidates, should easily win his home state for the Democratic ticket, and may be able to nudge other western states, such as Colorado, into the Democratic column.
Though Richardson’s drawbacks include an association with the past, and with President Clinton’s tenure in office, Richardson escaped from the Clinton years largely unscathed, and his personal, affable style contrasts nicely with Hillary Clinton’s stiff, formal approach.
Still, the electability question looms large, and a ticket featuring the first liberal female president flanked by the first liberal Hispanic vice president may be too much for the general election ticket. Moreover, appointing a former member of her husband’s cabinet underscores the degree to which Clinton is an establishment candidate, and Richardson’s cross-border birth story may anger the one constituency that Clinton needs to court – white men.
Clinton/Clark ‘08 – With the battle against Islamic extremism continuing, and the world increasingly becoming a more dangerous place thanks to hot spots like Iran, Iraq, Pakistan, Afghanistan, North Korea, etc., Clinton will be mindful of the importance of bolstering her national security credentials – this is particularly true given that some will be uncomfortable with the notion of a liberal woman as commander-in-chief. One possible solution is the addition to the ticket of General Wesley Clark - NATO’s former Supreme Allied Commander Europe, a former presidential candidate himself, and an endorsee of Hillary Clinton.
With Clark on the ticket, Clinton’s national security credentials will be enormously strengthened, and she will be far less vulnerable to attacks from the right questioning her resolve or capability. Clark is well known, respected for his military service, and probably is more likeable and perhaps capable on the stump than Senator Clinton.
Like all choices however, Clark comes with both positives and negatives. Perhaps most notably, is Clark’s association with the past and his unquestioned position as part of the Washington establishment. Clinton, already facing criticism from her fellow Democrats as the candidate of the “status quo,” will only add to that impression by choosing her husband’s former commander in Europe.
Clark also brings little with him in terms of demographics – a factor which is key to a party whose basis of support necessarily includes cobbling together disparate race-conscious, socio-ethnic and economic interest groups. Yet while Clark’s “waspiness” may not appeal to minorities, as a group they are likely to vote Democratic in any event. Clark’s presence may therefore help with the one demographic that Clinton could be lacking – white men.
Nevertheless, vice presidents are often selected with an expectation that they will help secure at least the electoral votes of their (usually key) home state. Clark, like Clinton, is a native of Illinois, which is of little benefit to Senator Clinton, and although he has been a lifelong southerner – a region the Democrats desperately need to make inroads into – he is, unfortunately for Clinton, a lifelong resident of Arkansas.
Still, Clark could be a useful and appealing addition to the ticket in an era of national security concerns. Other names likely to be on the Clinton short list include Indiana Senator, Evan Bayh, a moderate long thought to be an up and coming Democratic star. Though Bayh may not have national name recognition, his easy style, youthfulness, moderate reputation, and regional appeal may make him an appealing choice. Another possibility is Virginia Governor Mark Warner, who has recently announced his plans to run for U.S. Senate.
So, considering all these factors, and acknowledging once again that anything can happen, GOPublius predicts that the likely 2008 Democratic ticket will be Hillary Clinton and Wesley Clark. In a general election, Clark will provide critical balance to the ticket. With Obama gone, Clinton can expect to receive the support of black voters, who have long regarded her husband with great affection, white female voters who are likely to be animated by promises of healthcare and a sense of history in voting for the first female president, and the lionshare of Hispanics who will be annoyed by the tone of the GOP. Clark’s presence will help to boost Clinton’s national security credentials, provide credible but alternative viewpoints on the War on Terror, and encourage the support of white male voters. Though a less obvious choice than Richardson, Clinton can potentially shore up support in all her major constituencies, make the election of a liberal female commander-in-chief less worrisome, generate some southern regional support, and undermine the GOP’s strongest issue – national security, by adding Clark to the ticket.
But can this, or any of these match-ups, beat the likely Republican nominee and his runningmate? Stay tuned, Gopublius will bring you our 2008 GOP predictions this week.
