THE GOP
If making predictions for the unsettled Democrat race is difficult, making predictions for the Republican race is near impossible. Nevertheless, we’ll take our chances, invoking all the appropriate disclaimers.
The candidate of the moment is former Arkansas Governor Mike Huckabee – an affable, quick-witted southerner who has performed well in debates and convinced many rank and file voters that he’s the closest thing to a ”tell it like it is” Reaganesque conservative. While Huckabee has proven himself to be a media star, GOPublius believes that Huckabee is in fact a shooting star, and that his moment of glory is almost through. Huckabee is now coming under serious media scrutiny, has little in his campaign coffers, an anemic political organization (despite the hiring of Ed Rollins), and is regarded by many in the GOP establishment as “the Republican Jimmy Carter.”
Though Fred Thompson entered amidst the high hopes of many conservatives, his entry to the race proved to little, too late. Though he has improved over time, his initial public performances were unimpressive, his organization shaky, and his fundraising less impressive than billed. Thompson it seems waited too long, and underwhelmed the majority of Republicans when he finally arrived.
GOP voters still busily attempting to ferret out the real Reagan will soon come to learn that Ronald Reagan is long gone, and that 2008, and the future of the Republic, are staring them in the face.
As the specter of another Clinton presidency, or worse (if that’s possible), edges closer to reality, voters will begin to get more serious, to examine their choices based on electability, and make decisions about who can best defeat the likely Democrat opponent. The reality is that for all the horse racing there are only three credible and viable Republican candidates – Rudy Giuliani, Mitt Romney and John McCain.
Firstly John McCain. Many Republicans will no doubt scoff at the idea that John McCain could manage to get within a stone’s throw of the nomination. Nevertheless, McCain remains enormously popular with moderate Republicans and independents, and could even expect to pick up some Democratic support. This is particularly true given McCain’s stated desire to appoint Connecticut Senator, former Democratic vice presidential candidate, and recent endorsee Joe Lieberman to his cabinet. McCain’s tortoise campaign has moved on despite the odds, his numbers in New Hampshire are respectable, and his name recognition high. Even amongst those who disagree with McCain on specific areas of policy, there is n underlying acknowledgement that McCain is the adult in the race, and the one candidate best equipped to serve as commander-in-chief.
Nevertheless, McCain at 71, carries so much baggage with conservative voters that clenching the nomination would be an extraordinary feat. His attempted brokering of the “comprehensive” immigration bill was merely the last in a string of positions that seem all but crafted to irritate the very base that McCain would need to win the nomination. McCain might make a healthy showing in New Hampshire, but with at least two other viable and well-funded contenders at his heels, it’s likely to be all downhill from there.
Rudy Giuliani, once thought to be the titan of the GOP field has begun to lose his luster. His liberal social views and checkered personal life have long made him anathema to many conservatives, and recent revelations about his foreign business dealings, mob death threats, and questionable appointments and actions as mayor of New York, have added to the perception that Giuliani is just a bit greasy for the GOP. Still, many national security voters are attracted to Giuliani’s toughness, and fiscal conservatives like his impressive results as mayor. Nearly all Republicans concede that the scrappy New Yorker may be temperamentally best-suited to ”take on” Hillary Clinton. Nevertheless, Giuliani continues to sink in the polls, and the New York mayor seems stuck with a campaign in neutral, and banking on a later surge. By his own campaign’s design, and his limited appeal to social conservatives, Giuliani’s fate it seems, is dependant upon the performance of Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney.
For all the displeasure expressed about Romney’s apparent flip flopping and his Mormon faith, the self-funding, highly organized Romney campaign has managed to remain viable and competitive and may provide Romney with early wins in Iowa, New Hampshire and Michigan. What Romney lacks in conservative zeal and political authenticity, he partially makes up for with articulateness, goody-goody wholesomeness, and businesslike organization. He looks presidential too. Still, it remains to be seen whether his faith and the sneaking suspicion of many conservatives that he’s not much of a conservative will derail his early gains as the primaries head south.
Though Rudy Giuliani remains the most formidable national Republican candidate according to polls, GOPublius feels that he is ultimately unlikely to navigate the treacherous waters of the conservative GOP primary given the “anybody but Giuliani” sentiment so prevalent amongst the grassroots, the potential for momentum to build for one of his rivals in the early primaries, and his own sinking poll numbers in key states like Florida. Moreover, believing that voters will recognize Huckabee’s complete vulnerability in a general election, and an increasingly spotty record of conservative governance, Huckabee will flame out after Iowa, if not before. Despite conventional wisdom, even an early Huckabee win may not harm Romney. Rather, the prospect of a surging Huckabee may scare New Hampshire voters into Romney’s waiting arms, and only encourage more support in the serendipitously scheduled Michigan primary on January 15. Romney’s father, George Romney (also a Mormon) served as Chairman of Detroit’s American Motors Corporation before being elected as Michigan’s 43rd governor.
Romney has one more substantial arrow in his quiver - economic worries. As more gloomy and questionable economic forecasts pile-up, voter concern over the state of the economy rises. Of all the Republican candidates, the famously successful businessman Romney is uniquely equipped to deal with economic crisis and may convince voters that in a time of economic uncertainty, fiscal mismanagement, a weak dollar, and increased global competition, what America needs is a savvy CEO president. Indeed, Romney would be wise to remember that the foreign policy campaign of George H.W. Bush missed the growing economic concerns of voters in 1992 and allowed the economic mantle to be taken up by both Ross Perot and Bill Clinton. Romney would be wise to take a page from both Clinton’s and Perot’s playbooks by feeling voters “pain” about the economy and demonstrating (perhaps with a handy business-style chart or two), how to get the U.S. back on track.
Assuming for a moment that there is no messy, anything-goes convention floor fight, the last man standing it would seem will be the smooth-talking, self-funding Romney. His early victories in key states will lead to a general acceptance of his faults, a “so-what” attitude about his faith, and will propel him to a (perhaps unenthusiastic) nomination by the Republican Party.
Looking even further into the crystal ball, one can only venture to guess at who will be Romney’s running mate should he in fact win the nomination. It’s clear however that should either Romney or Giuliani win the nomination, both will almost certainly seek a southern conservative as a running mate, which should help to balance their respective reputations as less-than-conservative northeasterners. The ideal candidate would be a popular big-state southern social conservative with foreign policy or military command experience. Seeing none, we move to more conventional choices.
While the name Huckabee comes to everyone’s mind, it is probably likely that Huckabee will be far too damaged by the present primary fight to warrant a spot on the national ticket, far to divisive a figure for the general election, and would be a strange choice for Mitt Romney given their present war of words. However, Fred Thompson might be an attractive choice. Though he has little foreign policy experience, the likeable, tough-talking southerner certainly looks the part, and excites southern conservatives, though his criticism of Romney may make for an awkward pairing. Nevertheless, Thompson’s presence on the ticket could help motivate an otherwise unenthusiastic base.
Some other popular names include Mississippi Governor and former RNC Chairman, Haley Barbour, widely regarded as a solid southern conservative and the standout “hero” of the Hurricane Katrina disaster, and Texas Governor Rick Perry, who is known as a social conservative and has been critical of George W. Bush’s fiscal indiscipline. Other candidates include Georgia Governor Sonny Perdue, and the popular Florida governor, Charlie Crist. Though Republicans may be criticized for sticking to the tried and true white male ticket, the GOP has few credible candidates that are either black, Hispanic, or female, and the addition of moderates such as Florida Senator Mel Martinez, Hawaii Governor Linda Lingle, or Alaska Governor Sarah Palin are likely to be unenthusiastically received by the base, and would add little to the national ticket besides color or gender.
With all these factors in mind, and recognizing the folly of any such attempt, our best present guess for the 2008 Republican national ticket is Mitt Romney and Haley Barbour.
Let the naysaying begin.
THE DEMOCRATS
Making predictions is a dangerous undertaking, for obvious reasons. Increasingly however, the die of the near-term political future seems to have been cast. So it is with an acknowledgment to the fact that politics is a rapidly changing and highly unpredictable animal, that Gopublius shares with you these initial 2008 predictions for the Democratic ticket.
A few weeks ago, it was almost inconceivable the Senator Hillary Rodham Clinton would fail to capture the Democratic nomination. True, the anti-war base is angry with her, she has high negatives, she lack’s her husband’s charisma, and her campaign has taken its share of recent missteps, but nevertheless, she’s the undisputed titan in the Democratic race. With near universal name recognition, a moderate Senate record on defense, tons of money, and Bill Clinton at her side, only the type of terrible miscalculation that is largely foreign to the incredibly calculating Clintons, could bring her down.
Barak Obama presents some real threat to Clinton, and his new campaign teammate Oprah Winfrey has helped to bolster his appeal, but Obama still faces the uphill battle that all first-time, non-establishment candidates face. Moreover, the failure of the Pelosi/Reid led Democratic Congress to “stop the war,” has inflamed the liberal base and galvanized support for Obama as the true anti-war candidate. Still, Democrats are likely to be mindful of electability, and nominating an inexperienced, anti-war, black male president with Muslim roots during the “War on Terror” may be regarded as too much for the general electorate to swallow. Anything could happen, but at this stage it still seems more likely than not that Hillary Clinton will be the choice of Democrats in 2008.
Assuming that Hillary Clinton is the Democrat nominee, here are two interesting and apparent choices for a Clinton vice presidential running mate:
Clinton/Richardson ‘08 – With little national support for his presidential bid, it seems as though the New Mexico governor is actively running for vice president. Despite a poor national showing, Richardson has several factors on his side that make him an attractive and obvious choice for Clinton.
First and foremost, Bill Richardson has extensive leadership experience. In addition to his current governorship, Richardson has served in the Congress, as the U.S. Secretary of Energy, the U.S. Ambassador to the U.N., and served as a negotiator for the U.S. in several key global hotspots. Richardson would bring substantial experience, including executive, and foreign policy experience, to the ticket.
Moreover, Richardson also brings with him other key factors that could help bolster the ticket – geography, race and a great American story. Richardson’s mother, a native of Mexico, borded a northbound train while pregnant with Richardson in order to ensure his American birth, yet his father’s lineage includes passengers aboard the Mayflower. Richardson is both a Hispanic immigrant, and a relative of some of America’s earliest founders, a longstanding Boston family – from whom he garnered the “waspy” name William Blaine Richardson III. Richardson it seems has a little in his background to appeal to everyone.
Nonetheless, Richardson identifies closely with the key and growing Hispanic community – a demographic sure to be eager to support one of their own, especially in light of the GOP’s rancorous immigration debate.
Moreover, Richardson is a westerner. That northbound train conveniently left Richardson’s mother in Pasadena, California, where he was born. Though he was raised in Mexico City until he was 13, Richardson later moved to Boston, and settled in Santa Fe in 1978. Richardson is therefore well placed to appeal to western voters tired of eastern establishment candidates, should easily win his home state for the Democratic ticket, and may be able to nudge other western states, such as Colorado, into the Democratic column.
Though Richardson’s drawbacks include an association with the past, and with President Clinton’s tenure in office, Richardson escaped from the Clinton years largely unscathed, and his personal, affable style contrasts nicely with Hillary Clinton’s stiff, formal approach.
Still, the electability question looms large, and a ticket featuring the first liberal female president flanked by the first liberal Hispanic vice president may be too much for the general election ticket. Moreover, appointing a former member of her husband’s cabinet underscores the degree to which Clinton is an establishment candidate, and Richardson’s cross-border birth story may anger the one constituency that Clinton needs to court – white men.
Clinton/Clark ‘08 – With the battle against Islamic extremism continuing, and the world increasingly becoming a more dangerous place thanks to hot spots like Iran, Iraq, Pakistan, Afghanistan, North Korea, etc., Clinton will be mindful of the importance of bolstering her national security credentials – this is particularly true given that some will be uncomfortable with the notion of a liberal woman as commander-in-chief. One possible solution is the addition to the ticket of General Wesley Clark – NATO’s former Supreme Allied Commander Europe, a former presidential candidate himself, and an endorsee of Hillary Clinton.
With Clark on the ticket, Clinton’s national security credentials will be enormously strengthened, and she will be far less vulnerable to attacks from the right questioning her resolve or capability. Clark is well known, respected for his military service, and probably is more likeable and perhaps capable on the stump than Senator Clinton.
Like all choices however, Clark comes with both positives and negatives. Perhaps most notably, is Clark’s association with the past and his unquestioned position as part of the Washington establishment. Clinton, already facing criticism from her fellow Democrats as the candidate of the “status quo,” will only add to that impression by choosing her husband’s former commander in Europe.
Clark also brings little with him in terms of demographics – a factor which is key to a party whose basis of support necessarily includes cobbling together disparate race-conscious, socio-ethnic and economic interest groups. Yet while Clark’s “waspiness” may not appeal to minorities, as a group they are likely to vote Democratic in any event. Clark’s presence may therefore help with the one demographic that Clinton could be lacking – white men.
Nevertheless, vice presidents are often selected with an expectation that they will help secure at least the electoral votes of their (usually key) home state. Clark, like Clinton, is a native of Illinois, which is of little benefit to Senator Clinton, and although he has been a lifelong southerner – a region the Democrats desperately need to make inroads into – he is, unfortunately for Clinton, a lifelong resident of Arkansas.
Still, Clark could be a useful and appealing addition to the ticket in an era of national security concerns. Other names likely to be on the Clinton short list include Indiana Senator, Evan Bayh, a moderate long thought to be an up and coming Democratic star. Though Bayh may not have national name recognition, his easy style, youthfulness, moderate reputation, and regional appeal may make him an appealing choice. Another possibility is Virginia Governor Mark Warner, who has recently announced his plans to run for U.S. Senate.
So, considering all these factors, and acknowledging once again that anything can happen, GOPublius predicts that the likely 2008 Democratic ticket will be Hillary Clinton and Wesley Clark. In a general election, Clark will provide critical balance to the ticket. With Obama gone, Clinton can expect to receive the support of black voters, who have long regarded her husband with great affection, white female voters who are likely to be animated by promises of healthcare and a sense of history in voting for the first female president, and the lionshare of Hispanics who will be annoyed by the tone of the GOP. Clark’s presence will help to boost Clinton’s national security credentials, provide credible but alternative viewpoints on the War on Terror, and encourage the support of white male voters. Though a less obvious choice than Richardson, Clinton can potentially shore up support in all her major constituencies, make the election of a liberal female commander-in-chief less worrisome, generate some southern regional support, and undermine the GOP’s strongest issue – national security, by adding Clark to the ticket.
But can this, or any of these match-ups, beat the likely Republican nominee and his runningmate? Stay tuned, Gopublius will bring you our 2008 GOP predictions this week.
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