As the Nevada GOP Senate primary approaches its unpredictable conclusion, there is a potential disaster brewing for Silver State Republicans come fall. Sue Lowden, once the clear leader in the race has imploded thanks to politically asinine comments about bartering with chickens for health care. Never mind that bartering does continue to take place, when it comes to politics, such an unforced error is devastating. Moreover, Lowden’s questionable partial ownership and nondisclosure of her campaign bus has given her campaign an air of underhandedness. Add to Lowden’s woes her insider’s-insider status as the former Nevada GOP Party Chair and her past support and endorsement for Harry Reid and her veneer of formidability evaporates. As the latest polls indicate, Nevadans are walking away from Sue Lowden in droves, and Fox News reports she’s now third behind Angle and Tarkanian. Despite the backing of heavyweight GOP establishment figures, in the final analysis, Lowden is a falling star.

The bigger problem for Nevada Republicans is the possibility that many are leaving Sue’s campaign for Sharron Angle. Sure, Angle’s conservative, and she’s got the backing of both grassroots groups and political machines like the Tea Party Express, but Angle remains for many a fringe candidate with tenuous ties to Scientology and some questionable votes on spending. Her opponents, most notably Lowden, have pointed out her authorship of a bill which included the hair-brained scheme of providing massages to prison inmates. Can anyone see a Reid campaign commercial there? While Angle’s record does include some bright spots as well, the mere fact that Angle has a record at all is cause for concern in this anti-incumbency year. A four-term record in the Nevada State Assembly is sure to provide ample fodder for Reid and Democratic operatives, and Angle’s fringy style will likely prove an easy target for Reid’s well-oiled machine; a machine that’s managed to keep the sullen, liberal Majority Leader – by any measure an unappealing candidate – in office for more than 20 years. As the final vote draws near it’s clear that going with Angle is huge gamble.

The sleeper candidate in the race remains Danny Tarkanian. While Tarkanian hasn’t exactly caught fire, his quiet, consistent message and famous Nevada name have kept him in the running and amidst the unpredictability of Lowden and the quirkiness of Angle, Tarkanian looks more and more like the safe conservative choice. Tarkanian is just as conservative as Angle, he’s pro-life, pro-Second Amendment, opposed the Wall Street bailouts and focused on bringing the federal government to heel. He’s endorsed by Chuck Heath – Sarah Palin’s father and the grassroots Minuteman Project – but as an attorney and small businessman who’s never held public office before, Tarkanian comes without the baggage of a legislative record. He’s the outsider in an outsider’s year – something he grasped early as the first candidate to jump in against Reid last August when the Democrats were riding high. Going with Tarkanian has its disadvantages – Danny’s run for statewide office before, unsuccessfully – but on the other hand in doing so he’s boosted his statewide name recognition to a degree that Angle never has; most Nevada Republicans have a memory of casting their ballot for Danny Tarkanian. It helps also that every living room in the state has fond memories of watching his father, the legendary UNLV basketball coach, take the NCAA title.

Can Danny Tarkanian beat Harry Reid? If polls are any indication, yes. Tarkanian’s campaign boasts an impressive list of some 16 polls in which Tarkanian beats Reid – every poll, save one, since August 2009. While most Republicans are confident that a ham sandwich could beat Harry Reid in November, their overconfidence is just that – overconfident. Reid’s machine should not be underestimated – nor the millions upon millions of dollars in negative advertising and get out the vote efforts that will pour into Nevada to prop up the ailing Majority Leader. Reid will not go quietly, and while Angle’s upstart campaign seems to have the energy now to take on Reid, like Kentucky’s Rand Paul, personality along with her record, will likely prove far too easy to marginalize come June 9th; in the words of one respected Republican strategist, “Harry Reid will eat Sharron Angle for breakfast.”

Tarkanian may not be a dream candidate, but his quiet demeanor, constitutional focus, and stubborn determination are a good match for Reid’s own workmanlike approach to politics and the anti-government mood of the electorate. Over the course of nine months, Tarkanian has proven to be the only reliable candidate in Nevada’s GOP field, and he’s done so without the big dollars or the machine backing that has propelled his rivals. Ultimately Tarkanian is the safest option and the best candidate to take on Harry Reid this November, and should be the choice of Nevada Republicans.