Not if Michigan conservatives have anything to say about it.

Despite his lead in national polls, conservative Republicans are deeply distrustful of John McCain. While most concede that the nationally-known McCain could be their best hope for retaining the White House in November, many feel that McCain’s embrace of liberal positions – from pushing amnesty and campaign finance reform, to opposing tax cuts and promoting greater federal regulation - would amount to little gain.  Indeed, many contend that a President McCain, already predisposed to compromise with Democrats, and widely rumored to have considered leaving the Republican Party, would be a GOP disaster. 

All eyes are now focused on Michigan, where tomorrow’s primary could have an enormous repercussions for Republicans. A McCain victory could boost the Senator’s standings nationally, and provide the momentum necessary to give him a resounding win in South Carolina, where he currently leads in the polls.

With so much riding on Michigan, throughout America, the conservative war cry has gone up - vote Romney.

Though most readily concede that Romney is an imperfect candidate, he is by all accounts, the leading Reagan conservative in the field – the others being former Tennessee Senator Fred Thompson, and California Congressman Duncan Hunter, who has gained little traction. 

The late enthusiasm for Romney however, isn’t due to a sudden epiphany by conservatives that Romney is their guy, rather, it’s a concession by most that other than Thompson, Romney is the best shot for true conservatives.

Thompson, the candidate that most excites conservatives has performed poorly in the race, and despite a surprisingly good debate performance last week, still trails McCain, Huckabee and Romney in South Carolina. The Palmetto State is largely seen as a do or die contest for Thompson, and a surging McCain, fresh off a Michigan victory over Romney would almost certainly spell disaster for Thompson and could propel McCain right through to the nomination.

By contrast, a Romney win in Michigan would mark a sea change in the race. Romney, who has been on shaky ground since his victory in Wyoming, needs a big state win to keep himself in the race and increase his momentum heading into the southern primaries. Moreover, such a victory would send a message across the country – that Reagan conservatism is still at the heart of the GOP.

Despite the press’ characterization of the Republican race as a free-for-all, battle lines have increasingly been drawn around complimentary campaigns; it’s now a struggle between two groups – the more liberal McCain and Huckabee versus the more conservative Romney and Thompson.

Weekend polls showed a slight trend toward Romney, but with so many variables, it’s difficult to tell who will take the Great Lakes State. An open primary, such as Michigan has, is widely regarded as favoring McCain, whose appeal to independents and moderate Democrats could give him the win. Moreover, Michigan is familiar territory to McCain, who beat rival George W. Bush there in 2000. Still, with every Democratic candidate besides Hillary Clinton boycotting the Michigan primaries, it is unclear whether enough registered Democrats or Independents will turn out to either vote against Hillary Clinton by choosing “uncommitted,” or vote for John McCain.

Despite the open primary, Romney also has reason to smile. The name Romney is familiar to Michiganites, as Mitt Romney was born in Michigan, and his father, George Romney, served as Michigan’s governor, as well as chairman of the Detroit-based American Motors Corporation. Romney’s association with the state, and his reputation as a successful businessman, adept at turning failing organizations around, may propel him to a win with an electorate suffering from economic woes. Add to that a possible enthusiastic turnout from conservatives, including Thompson supporters, and Romney could eek out a win that would have enormous implications.

At this point it’s simply too close to call, but Michigan may hold the key to the GOPs immediate future – will it be the continuation of the Reagan model offered by Romney and Thompson, or a trend left, toward the compromise and economic populism offered by McCain and Huckabee?

In the end, turnout, and the will of non-Republicans may hold the key.

If last night’s Republican presidential debate in South Carolina taught us anything, it is that the top three presidential candidates, at best, have tortured positions on many of the most important issues to traditional conservatives. It also demonstrated once again that the supreme issue in the upcoming election is the myriad security challenges facing the nation. The challenges include rogue nations like Iran, a lawless border that allows for millions of unknown persons to enter the country, and emerging threats from nations like China that are slowly but methodically building their military and economic might at the expense of the U.S. trade relationship.

While Giuliani’s personal charisma and his leadership on 9/11 and John McCain’s heroic war service bolster their respective claims to the national security mantle, their well-known softness on the immigration security issue guarantee the status quo (or worse) should either be elected. Meanwhile Governor Romney’s carefully worded positions sound better, but are ultimately far too much like President Bush’s trite platitudes – platitudes that have maintained the border in its moribund state and may someday prove to have been the security breach that provided the entry point for the terrorists that nearly all government officials agree will strike us again.

Today, we are reminded again of how tone deaf the Republican Party remains on the issue of border security and how willing the Party is too sell out its core constituency. The talking points leaked by House Republicans on the proposed immigration deal are a blueprint for amnesty and a recipe for continuing lawlessness on our southern border. It is an affront to all law-abiding citizens and a complete derogation of the core duty of the federal government.

Were the mainstream media to be the only voice in America our choices would be limited to the willfully suicidal Democrats or the above cadre of obfuscating office-seekers. While Congressman Tancredo continues to beat the drum of border security, his fringy style and his seemingly anti-immigrant rhetoric have lead to his complete marginalization by the mainstream press and have resulted in an utter credibility vacuum on one of the most important issues facing the nation.

Enter Congressman Duncan Hunter. Over the course of two Republican debates Congressman Hunter’s assertive clarity has caught the eye of GOP voters hungry for a candidate they can trust. As more voters take a closer look at Hunter, they discover a solidly conservative record from a dedicated public servant who served his country in Vietnam and has continued to be a stalwart advocate for America’s armed forces as Chairman of the House Armed Services Committee. While not all of Hunter’s conservative positions may play well during a general election, it is clear that with Hunter, what you see is what you get.

Hunter remains the only candidate that has actually made a difference in the border security struggle by authoring the legislation that built the beefed-up border fence in his San Diego, California constituency. As a result San Diego has seen a massive decline in both illegal immigration and crime, much of it narcotics driven. Nevertheless, despite Hunter’s dogged determination he has managed to remain positive about legal immigration and respectful of those seeking a better life in America.

Moreover, Hunter’s unabashed skepticism about China’s duplicity and his stated willingness to help reign in the unfair trade practices that are undermining America’s manufacturing base is music to the ears of Americans tired of watching jobs and factories shipped overseas. During the debate Hunter zeroed in on the nexus between economics and security noting:

“They now have us at a $2-$300 billion trade loss annually with China and they’re using American billions to buy ships and planes and missiles. They just bought these Sovremenny-class missile destroyers from the Russians, which were designed to kill American aircraft carriers.”

Though Hunter is not the first to warn of China’s emerging threat potential, his loan voice of caution on Tuesday’s debate stage was reminiscent of Winston Churchill’s admonitions of the gathering storm in 1930s Germany. In a pool of security dinghies, Duncan was a dreadnought.

Hunter may not have the money or the name identification to be considered “first tier,” but his steadfast and forthrightly conservative performance has been first rate. Perhaps throughout the course of this abnormally extended election cycle, Republican voters will tire of twisted positions and hackneyed media makeovers and will turn to a candidate that looks conservative, and sounds conservative because he is conservative.

UPDATE : Looks like someone posted this on Freerepublic for us. Thanks, and next time, leave a calling card…
Freerepublic article here